Metcalf & Lessler (2017)
\(y=ax+b\)
\(y=ax+b\)
WHO Ebola response team (2014)
\(d\log \beta_t = \sigma dW_t\)
Dureau et al. (2013)
Use particle Markov chain Metropolis-Hastings to sample from \(p(\theta|\mathrm{Data})\) and \(p(\beta_t|\mathrm{Data})\)
Andrieu et al. (2010), Dureau et al. (2013), Murray et al. (2013)
Camacho et al. (2015), Funk et al. (2016), Funk et al. (2017)
Hans Rosling
Cumulative distribution of \(u_t=F_t(x_t)\)
Divide \([0,1]\) in \(m\) subintervals
\(C({F_t},{x_t})=1-\frac{1}{2}\frac{m}{m-1}\sum_j \left|p_j - \frac{1}{m}\right|\)
\(p_j\) is the proportion of \(u_t=F_t(x_t)\) that is in interval \(j\)
\(S_t(F_t) = 1 - \frac{\mathrm{MADM}(y)}{m(y)}\)
\(y\) is a variable distributed according to \(F_t\)
\(\mathrm{MADM}(y)\): median absolute deviation about the median \(m(y)\) of \(y\)
Gneiting et al., J R Stat Soc B (2007)
\(\mathrm{CRPS}(F_t,x_t) = E_{ F_t } \left|X - x_t\right| - \frac{1}{2}E_{F_t} \left|X - X'\right|\)
Need methods to
combine all available data streams
(individual/behavioural/spatial/genetic)
Louis du Plessis, University of Oxford (unpublished)
Anton Camacho, John Edmunds, Roz Eggo,
Rachel Lowe, Adam Kucharski (LSHTM)
James Hensman (Lancaster), Lawrence Murray (Uppsala)